Olson.

In 1982, Mancur Olson published The Rise and Decline of Nations, arguing that economies don’t stumble into stagnation; they organise their way there. This project renders that argument as charts, country by country.

What it is

Societies accumulate distributional coalitions over time. These are organised special interests that succeed by capturing a bigger slice of the pie instead of growing it. A cartel here, a protected industry there. Each one is rational on its own terms, but together they create what Olson called institutional sclerosis. The economy grows slower as more energy goes into defending existing slices rather than baking new bread.

The project tracks that process across countries, showing how coalitions form, what they capture, and what happens to growth when they do.

The standstill

The end-state is what Olson called reformist gridlock. When zero-sum, veto-driven special interests dominate systems, every reform hits a veto from the losing coalition. Nothing structural can change. This standstill is the natural equilibrium, not a crisis.

Terms of trade and other factors can hide the decline. A country riding a commodity boom posts perfectly respectable numbers while its institutions quietly sclerotise underneath. The good times paper over the gridlock. But the gridlock is still there, and when the terms of trade turn, it is all that is left.

How it’s built

A Python script generates a data.json file for each country. A React component using Recharts renders it, hydrated in an Astro page.

Data updates with every build, so the charts stay current without manual intervention. You can select a country and track its rise or decline.

Project Olson is in active development and there may be mistakes. Use with caution.

Links

• Project Olson — the live site.