Inflation
The RBA is losing the war on credibility
The RBA spent 2025 fuelling a fire it now lacks the credibility to extinguish.
Justin Pyvis
Justin has a PhD in economics and 20+ years of experience in policy and investment analysis from working at the WA Treasury and AECOM in Perth, and Aletheia Capital in Hong Kong.
Politics
The economics of a Liberal bloodbath
When your political strategy relies on a version of the economy that hasn't existed since 1960, a historic bloodbath is the only logical outcome.
Energy
Oil is already being rationed
The biggest risk for Australia isn't the oil shock itself but that the urge to "do something" worsens the situation before the crisis is resolved.
Energy
The oil shock in context
Australia's current oil crisis is a race between a rapid global supply response and the domestic urge to 'do something' that inevitably makes the situation worse.
Tax
The capital gains tax discount is a red herring
The CGT debate is a distraction from a much harder truth: Australia's tax and transfer system is no longer fit for an aging population.
Inflation
Australia's inflation problem is home-grown
Australia's underlying inflation problem was made in Canberra and Martin Place, not Tehran.
Artificial Intelligence
Paul O'Malley's misunderstandings about AI and trade
The risk to Australia isn't using AI built elsewhere but letting domestic incumbents like CBA use 'sovereignty' as a shield for protectionism.
Productivity
Australia's labour market is becoming like its housing market
By treating labour like a durable capital stock, Australia is legislating its workforce into the same rigid corner as its housing market.
Commodities
How not to respond to a supply shock
Allegra Spender's windfall tax idea would blunt price signals at exactly the moment you need them the most.
Inflation
Oil shocks don't cause inflation
The Iran war won't cause inflation unless central banks let it.
Inflation
Australia's cockroach problem
Domestic inflation never came close to target during the RBA's easing cycle, and just like cockroaches, it's back again.
Housing
Housing's favourite villain
Australia is obsessed with taxing the supposed villains of the housing market while ignoring the restrictive zoning laws that actually lock people out.