A new direction
Why proprietary AI is losing its edge, local policy has hit a wall, and where this newsletter is heading next.
Latest
The next reform victim
The Albanese government has found its next target, don't bank on a rate cut in 2026, and no matter how bad it gets there's always the UK.
Labor's poison pill
The Greens got their concessions, Labor got its tax hike, and the rest of Australia got a revenue grab dressed as neutral reform.
Caveat emptor
Pauline's big day, Hormuz is open (or is it?), and the biggest meme stock of all-time.
A nation divided
The rise of One Nation, Oil and the Strait of Hormuz, and the SpaceX IPO.
Treasury's imaginary gift
Indexing for inflation isn't a concession, and deferring tax until you sell isn't a loan.
Is Australia a high-taxing nation?
No, but tax-to-GDP is a highly misleading measure of the true tax burden.
When is a recession a recession?
Canada's technical recession, Australia's non-technical recession, and the worst public policy error in recent history.
Killing with kindness
The minimum wage increases that are a boon for some may eventually lead to lost jobs for others.
There will be no AI jobpocalypse
The economy's built-in roadblocks are bad news for anyone expecting an AI productivity miracle or an employment bloodbath.
Efficiency or revenue?
Treasury defends the tax hikes; Australia's economy might be slowing down; and Budget fun across the ditch.
It's not about the water
The arguments against data centres are a classic Gish Gallop designed to rile up emotions and obstruct investment.
Tax
A tax on capital is a tax on wages
Australia's capital per worker hasn't grown in a decade, yet Labor's response is to tax it harder.
Weekly
Nth-best
Treasury shows its work; The term premium returns... or does it; and Time to dust off your paper air-plane skills.
Labour
Is there a crisis facing men?
The data on young men is genuinely mixed. You wouldn't know it from the commentary.
Debt
Why markets didn't react to Australia's budget
The most controversial budget since 1993, and the bond market didn't bat an eye.
Sport
Chiefs of the salary cap
How Australian taxpayers are buying PNG an NRL premiership.
Politics
Did Labor just jump the shark?
The next Australian election just went from a sure thing to wide open.
Growth
The one line that matters in Australia's Budget
If you want to know whether a government is leaving the next generation better off, watch what it spends, not what it taxes.
Debt
Why Western Australia is squandering generational wealth
And how to fix it for the future.
Inflation
Call it Jimflation
Australia's inflation is home brewed.
Politics
The intergenerational ruse
The coming budget isn't really about helping young Australians.
Energy
Australia should legalise nuclear
Belgium, Germany, Denmark and Japan are reversing course. Yet Australia is still pretending it has a choice.
Debt
Canada's borrowed wealth
Canada might be getting a sovereign wealth fund. Whether Canadians ever get any wealth out of it is a different question.