There is no moat
Chinese AI models are really good and the LLM space looks set to be commoditised, with consequences for the owners of the leading closed models.
Latest
The PBO's bitter truth
Canberra's budgeting is industrial strength gaslighting, Westpac stands up for Superannuation, and Australia leads the world in occupational licensing, the productivity killer.
The Office of AI
The opportunity costs of Australia's rush to establish 'AI standards' will be measured in the unseen innovations, jobs, and productivity gains that a committee in Canberra thwarts.
Why falling house prices aren't always a win
Whether a fall in house prices is 'good news' depends entirely on why they are falling.
Balancing the pain
Labor wants to meddle with interest rates, investing will have to change, and meeting the new Grok.
Protecting jobs by killing growth
Australia won't build the next OpenAI, but could be its most sophisticated adopter... unless Labor ties the sector in regulatory knots first.
Vibes vs. data at the World Cup
The most successful South American team actually plays a highly optimised, European style of football.
Cold comfort
The wrong kind of housing cooling, the ACCC loses its way, and OpenAI proposes the friendliest shakedown in tech.
A new direction
Why proprietary AI is losing its edge, local policy has hit a wall, and where this newsletter is heading next.
The next reform victim
The Albanese government has found its next target, don't bank on a rate cut in 2026, and no matter how bad it gets there's always the UK.
Labor's poison pill
The Greens got their concessions, Labor got its tax hike, and the rest of Australia got a revenue grab dressed as neutral reform.
Caveat emptor
Pauline's big day, Hormuz is open (or is it?), and the biggest meme stock of all-time.
Weekly
A nation divided
The rise of One Nation, Oil and the Strait of Hormuz, and the SpaceX IPO.
Tax
Treasury's imaginary gift
Indexing for inflation isn't a concession, and deferring tax until you sell isn't a loan.
Tax
Is Australia a high-taxing nation?
No, but tax-to-GDP is a highly misleading measure of the true tax burden.
Weekly
When is a recession a recession?
Canada's technical recession, Australia's non-technical recession, and the worst public policy error in recent history.
Labour
Killing with kindness
The minimum wage increases that are a boon for some may eventually lead to lost jobs for others.
Artificial Intelligence
There will be no AI jobpocalypse
The economy's built-in roadblocks are bad news for anyone expecting an AI productivity miracle or an employment bloodbath.
Weekly
Efficiency or revenue?
Treasury defends the tax hikes; Australia's economy might be slowing down; and Budget fun across the ditch.
Energy
It's not about the water
The arguments against data centres are a classic Gish Gallop designed to rile up emotions and obstruct investment.
Tax
A tax on capital is a tax on wages
Australia's capital per worker hasn't grown in a decade, yet Labor's response is to tax it harder.
Weekly
Nth-best
Treasury shows its work; The term premium returns... or does it; and Time to dust off your paper air-plane skills.
Labour
Is there a crisis facing men?
The data on young men is genuinely mixed. You wouldn't know it from the commentary.
Debt
Why markets didn't react to Australia's budget
The most controversial budget since 1993, and the bond market didn't bat an eye.